#1 Washington Capitals vs #8 New York Rangers
Prediction: Washington in 6
Every series Bruce Boudreau has coached has been a seven-game series, even when they weren't supposed to be. Why should this be any different? The Capitals went 7 games two years ago when they played New York and this is going to be a tough, low-scoring series, hopefully they end it in 6.
Regular season series:
November 9th, 2010: Capitals @ Rangers 5-3
December 12th, 2010: Capitals @ Rangers 0-7
January 24th, 2011: Rangers @ Capitals 2-1 SO
February 25th, 2011: Rangers @ Capitals 6-0
Rangers: 3-1-0
Capitals: 1-2-1
You can see the blowouts by the Rangers on the Caps this season, however, the first blowout loss was when the Capitals were on that terrible losing streak in December and the second blowout loss was the last time the Capitals would lose before going on a nine game winning streak and losing only three games in regulation after that loss. The Rangers lost the next three games after that before beating Ottawa and demolishing Philadelphia. The one thing that can be observed is that when Lundqvist is on his game, teams will take more risks to try to score giving the Rangers more opportunities to counter-attack, and that's how they get those big blowout wins.
Forwards: Advantage: Capitals
The Capitals have some of the best forwards in the league in Semin, Backstrom, and of course, the great Alexander Ovechkin. The Rangers have only one forward who eclipsed 50 points, and that was Brandon Dubinsky with 54. Semin also got 54 points, but in far fewer games. The Rangers had five players score over 20 goals, indicating that they have spread out the scoring, while the Capitals only had three players score 20+, however, they have a lot of players back from last season while the Rangers missed the playoffs last season and have plenty of hungry new youngsters. Not to mention, the Capitals have two go-to goalscorers in Ovechkin and Semin.
Defensemen: Advantage: Rangers
The Rangers have some of the best defensemen in the league who are willing to lay their body out to block shots. As a team they blocked over 1300 shots. The Caps weren't far behind with 1257, but the Rangers defensemen are notorious for putting their bodies on the line. While the Capitals have more scorers on defense, the Rangers have better defensemen who play defense which should lead to an interesting match-up. Mike Green may be back, but he'll need to play defense as hard as he was before he was concussed.
Goaltending: Advantage: Rangers
Henrik Lundqvist would've won the Vezina had it not been for some dude named Tim Thomas. Lundqvist had been on a tear during the regular season with a 2.28 GAA and 11 shutouts. The Capitals will send out Michal Neuvirth who has a 2.45 GAA and 4 shutouts. Lundqvist has a 14-16 record with 3 shutouts and a 2.66 GAA, not to mention, the last time he was in the playoffs, the Rangers lost to these same Capitals.
Power Play: Advantage: Capitals
Although they Capitals and Rangers Power-Play are very close 17.5% for the Caps and 16.9% for the Rangers, the Capitals have had fewer power-play opportunities as well as having Mike Green back to anchor one of the units. While Dennis Wideman won't be anchoring one of the power-plays, John Carlson can fill in perfectly at the other point with Ovie at point on both power plays. The Rangers are going to be missing the services of Ryan Callahan who led the team with 10 power play goals. Marian Gaborik has only had 1 power play goal in the playoffs in 11 games since the lockout. I don't expect much out of him, even though he was second with 7 goals.
Penalty Kill: Advantage: Capitals
They were #2 in the PK this season with an 85.6 %. The Rangers were 10th with 83.7%. The big difference is that the Capitals have been short-handed 40 more times this season, which roughly equates to an additional minor every other game. Plus, the Capitals have about 16 of their players rotating on the power play while the Rangers have only 12 (and that includes Callahan being injured, who was 3rd on the team in ice time per game on the PK)
X-Factor: Michal Neuvirth. He has never lost a series since coming to America, although those series have been in the AHL and OHL, he's been unstoppable in the post-season. He averaged a GAA under 2 in the AHL playoffs and a save percentage above .925%, let's see if he can bring it to the playoffs, otherwise, it'll be Varly replacing him after game 1.
#2 Philadelphia Flyers vs #7 Buffalo Sabres
Prediction: Sabres in 6.
I think that Ryan Miller is going to steal this from the Flyers, especially if the Sabres can split the first two games. While the Flyers will be pounding the puck at net, Buffalo showed that they can hang with Philly in their last two meetings. There is no beating Ryan Miller, especially after last year's early 1st round exit.
Regular Season Series:
October 26th, 2010: Sabres at Flyers (3-6)
January 11th, 2011: Flyers at Sabres (5-2)
March 5th, 2011: Sabres at Flyers (5-3)
April 8th, 2011: Flyers at Sabres (3-4) OT
Flyers: 2-1-1
Sabres: 2-2-0
Forwards: Advantage: Flyers
The Flyers have two 30-goal scorers and 5 20-goal scorers. There top three lines can all score, not to mention, they all know how to play physical. The Sabres are missing Derek Roy who got injured earlier this season, but they added Brad Boyes during the trade deadline. Drew Stafford has got his first 30-goal season. Behind him, Pominville and Ennis also got 20 goals for the Sabres this year. Thomas Vanek will need to have a monster playoffs if the Sabres want to win this.
Defensemen: Advantage: Flyers
The Flyers have Chris Pronger, who helped them get to the cup last year and he's been to the Cup 3 times since the lockout ended and won once with with Ducks. He's the key to the Flyers defense. The Sabres will counter with Jordan Leopold and Tyler Myers, who are young guys that want a championship. The Flyers defensive corps did it last year and are looking to repeat a trip to the cup this year.
Goaltending: Advantage: Sabres
Buffalo won the division last year, but Miller got taxed during the Olympics, this year, he's been resting a bit more with Enroth playing more games down the stretch. Philadelphia's goaltending situation is a huge issue. Since February 1st, the Flyers are 14-11-7. Goaltending is a big reason they lost their grip on the Conference and ended up in second after a huge lead halfway through the season. Ryan Miller can steal a series on his own if given the opportunity. He nearly got the Sabres to the Stanley Cup in 2006 if it weren't for Cam Ward out-dueling him that year.
Power-Play: Advantage: Sabres
Buffalo had the #9 power-play with 19.4% and Philly was 16.6%. Drew Stafford and Thomas Vanek have scored double-digit goals for the Sabres while Jeff Carter and Claude Giroux lead the Flyers with 8 goals a piece. Mike Richards and Claude Giroux both have 20+ points on the power play, but Thomas Vanek has 28 points on the PP and the Sabres as a team have a ton of players with double-digit points on the PP. Much like the Capitals have a ton of players who can play the PK, the Sabres have a ton of players who can play the the power-play and that's why they're so good.
Penalty Kill: Advantage: Flyers
Buffalo had a PK or 83%, Philly had a PK of 82.8%, but Philly didn't have Chris Pronger towards the end of the season. After Chris Pronger was shelved, the Flyers PK dropped down to 78%. With a healthy Chris Pronger returning, this Flyers PK is much better. Not to mention, they do have 13 SHG.
X-Factor: Danny Briere
Simply put, Danny Briere brings it in the playoffs. When he averages about a point per game, he can take a team into the conference finals, when he does more and averages over 1.25 points per game, he can take a team to the Stanley Cup. What better team than the one he originally had success with to be able to shut him down? Lindy Ruff has had Danny Briere and knows how he plays, if Briere can average over a point per game, this team will advance, if not...
#3 Bruins vs #6 Canadiens
Prediction: Bruins in 7
Unless Chara gets arrested when get gets back to Canada, the Bruins are going to physically beat down the Canadiens. Everyone knows what to expect after the Canadiens last season had that miraculous run to the Eastern Conference finals.
Regular Season Series:
November 11th, 2010: Canadiens @ Bruins (3-1)
December 16th, 2010: Bruins @ Canadiens (3-4)
January 8th, 2011: Bruins @ Canadiens (2-3) OT
February 9th, 2011: Canadiens @ Bruins (6-8)
March 8th, 2011: Bruins @ Canadiens (1-4)
March 24th, 2011: Canadiens @ Bruins (0-7)
Canadiens: (4-2-0)
Bruins: (2-3-1)
Forwards: Advantage: Bruins
The Canadiens have not had much in terms of scoring. Much like the Rangers, they have only one player who has 50+ points in Tomas Plekanec, while teh Bruins had several players reach mark. Milan Lucic led all Bruins with 30 goals while Brian Gionta led the Habs with 29. Both teams have gotten contributions up and down the lineup, but the Bruins have better depth when it comes to scoring.
Defensemen: Advantage: Canadiens
The Bruins have Zdeno Chara, the Habs have P.K. Subban, the rest of the Bruins D is not as strong as the rest of the Canadiens D. Chara is the best defenseman in this series, but the Canadiens defensemen are much the same from last year and their corps managed to shut down the Caps and Pens and help take this team to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Goaltending: Advantage: Bruins
This isn't even a debate, Carey Price had a career year, but Tim Thomas broke the save percentage record, not to mention, he's going to win the Vezina. I think that about sums it up in a nutshell.
Power Play: Advantage: Canadiens
Montreal had a 19.7% power play, the Bruins had a 16.2%. Because the Canadiens have fast forwards, they draw a lot of power plays (25 more than Boston this season). They also had 7 more PPGs than Boston, but the biggest difference is that Boston is an abysmal 15.4% on the power play at home, good for 25th in the league. That is something the Canadiens will have a huge advantage over.
Penalty Kill: Advantage: Canadiens
You'd think with Chara, the Bruins would have it? But the numbers tell a different story. Montreal 84.4% and Boston had 82.6%, however, Montreal is better killing off penalties on the road as they have the #1 road unit PK. With Boston have a the home advantage, this strongly goes in the favor of the Habs.
X-Factor: Milan Lucic
This dude does it all, fight, score, set up teammates, btw, he also had 9 points in six games against Montreal with season with 18 PIMs (10 of those have gotta be from fighting). He is going to set the tone for the Bruins against the Habs. If he performs well, this team will follow, if he doesn't, well... and by setting the tone, I mean one of three things: scoring, setting up goals, and fighting. He'll pull one of those off early in game 1 to set it up for the Bruins.
#4 Penguins vs #5 Lightning
Prediction: Lightning in 6
The Penguins have been up and down since Sid and Geno hit the shelves. Crosby on January 5th, Malkin on February 4th. Since then they're 15-10-4, now you may think that's not bad, but 6 of those wins are via shootout. There's not going to be a shootout at any point in the stanley cup playoffs. Not only that, they have shown an inability to beat playoff teams in regulation which they have done once since February 6th, the first game Sid and Geno hit the shelf together. With that in mind, you have to really wonder if the Penguins can play the full 60 minutes and win against the Lightning without their two superstars.
Regular Season Series:
October 27th, 2010: Penguins @ Lightning (3-5)
November 12th, 2010: Lightning @ Penguins (1-5)
January 5th, 2010: Lightning @ Penguins (1-8)
March 31st, 2010: Penguins @ Lightning (1-2)
Penguins (2-2)
Lightning (2-2)
Forwards: Advantage: Lightning
Stamkos and St. Louis both put up 90+ points this season, Lecavalier and Purcell each got 50 points, despite Lecavalier missing time this season. The one thing going in the favor of the Lightning is that their top 9 forwards are healthy. Not only that, only Tyler Kennedy and Jordan Staal scored more than 20 points after teh all-star break with Kennedy scoring 14 goals. The Lightning had five guys break the 20 point barrier and Vinny Lecavalier went on a tear with 17 goals in his final 30 games while Marty St. Louis put up 28 assists and 39 points.
Defensemen: Advantage: Penguins
While the Lightning have some good defensemen, the Penguins have a lot of two-way defensemen in Paul Martin, Kris Letang, Zbynek Michalek, and now Ben Lovejoy to a degree. The Lightning defensemen are underrated, but there's no big names up there. The Lightning defenemsen have not fared well down the stretch compared to the Pens
defensemen, and that is where this series may be won.
Goaltending: Advantage: None
Some of you Pens lovers may be blasting me on this decision, but Marc-Andre Fleury who's expected to start has been outperformed by Brent Johnson late into the season, the Bolts will lean heavily on Dwayne Roloson who hasn't been in the playoffs since he took the Oilers to the Cup in 06. I believe he wants to prove that he's still got it and that's why this is a toss-up
Power Play: Advantage: Lightning
This isn't even close. Tampa Bay at 20.5% and Pittsburgh at 15.8%. Outside of Tyler Kennedy, nobody's produced on the PP for the Pens since the all-star break. For the Bolts Lecavalier has scored 9 goals since the all-star break on the PP and Gagne and Moore each have four goals, Marty is still setting up on the PP with 14 assists since the all-star break.
Penalty Kill: Advantage: Pens
Even without Sid and Geno, the Pens have the #1 PK unit in the league. Tampa Bay has the #8 unit, but the big difference is that Pittsburgh has 13 shorties on the season. Matt Cooke isn't going to be here for the series, but he's got 3 SHG, and Dupuis has 4. Craig Adams and Talbot have a few, so it's going to be a matter of containing one of the league's best PP for the Pens.
X-Factor: Steven Stamkos
He's been cold since the All-Star break with 7 goals and 17 assists over 30 games while he had 35 goals going into the break. He needs to turn it back up if the Bolts are to advance, he's the top line center and he needs to produce for them to win.
Western Conference
#1 Canucks vs #8 Blackhawks
Prediction: Canucks in 7 (maybe 6)
Is this the year the Canucks finally beat the Blackhawks? With the Sedin twins, Kesler, Burrows, an almost healthy defensive corps and a depleted Blackhawks team from last year that barely squeaked into the playoffs this season. I think the Canucks can win it with superior goaltending.
Regular Season Series:
October 20th, 2010: Canucks @ Blackhawks (1-2) SO
November 20th, 2010: Blackhawks @ Canucks (7-1)
December 3rd, 2010: Canucks @ Blackhawks (3-0)
February 4th, 2010: Blackhawks @ Canucks (3-4)
Canucks (2-1-1)
Blackhawks (2-2)
Forwards: Advantage: Canucks
The Blackhawks have four great forwards in Toews, Kane, Sharp, and Hossa. The Canucks counter with the Sedin twins, Ryan Kesler and Alex Burrows. The Sedins nearly ran away with the scoring title this season if it weren't for Marty St. Louis and Corey Perry didn't go nuts at the end of the season. Kesler and the Sedins anchor two separate lines and as a result, there's a plethora of scoring for the Canucks forwards who will have 7 forwards with double digit goals against the Blackhawks nine double-digit goal scorers. But you can't shut down both the Sedin line and Kesler line. The Canucks are one of the best two-way teams and their forwards all know how to play defense, including Kesler who should win the Selke this year.
Defensemen: Advantage: Canucks
Edler is back for the Canucks, and that's going to be trouble for the Blackhawks. The top six for the Canucks should be Ehrhoff, Edler, Hamhuis, Bieksa, Salo, and Ballard, and that's gotta be the best defensive corps in the entire playoffs. The Blackhawks still have Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook, along with a healthy Brian Campbell, but they lost Dustin Byfuglien who was a big piece of their team last year. The rest of the Blackhawks D can play defense, but they do not compare to the Canucks D.
Goaltending: Advantage: Canucks
Roberto Luongo has a gold medal, now he wants a Stanley Cup. Corey Crawford played an awful lotta games down the stretch for the Blackhawks to make it to the playoffs, starting in 29 of a possible 32 games while Luongo got some rest by only having to play in 22 of the 32 games. I think the edge goes to Luongo.
Power Play: Advantage: Canucks
They had the #1 unit, Chicago was #4. 24.3% to 23.1%, but the difference is... the Sedins... with 40 pts for Daniel and 35 for Henrik on the power play. Kesler also put up 30 points and the Blackhawks have no one that put up that many points on the PP for them. Their highest scorer was sharp with 26 points, but they did get a lot of contributions from many players on the team.
Penalty Kill: Advantage: Canucks
Vancouver was #3 with a 85.6% kill while Chicago had an awful 79.2% PK, good for 25th in the league. I seriously doubt Chicago will be able to shut down the Canucks potent power-play.
X-Factor(s): Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane got this team a Stanley Cup last year and in the series against the Canucks, they both came out to play, so this year they need to bring it again, otherwise Vancouver is going to run over them.
#2 Sharks vs #7 Kings
Prediction: Sharks in 5
The Sharks, on paper, dominate the Kings without Anze Kopitar and maybe Justin Williams who, if he plays, will have a very bad shoulder. This is by far the easiest series to pick.
Regular Season Series:
November 15th, 2010: Kings @ Sharks (3-6)
December 27th, 2010: Kings @ Sharks (4-0)
January 1st, 2011: Sharks @ Kings (1-0)
January 26th, 2011: Sharks @ Kings (2-3) SO
March 24th, 2011: Sharks @ Kings (3-4) SO
April 4th, 2011: Kings @ Sharks (1-6)
Sharks (3-1-2)
Kings (3-3-0)
Forwards: Advantage: Sharks
Here's the top three lines Marleau(73)-Thronton(70)-Setoguchi(41), Clowe(62)-Couture(56)-Heatley(64),Mitchell(23)-Pavelski(66)-Wellwood(13). Please tell me that is not insane! The Kings highest scorer that is guarantted to be healthy is Dustin Brown with 57 points and then Ryan Smyth(47) and Jarret Stoll(43), while they have a potent line to throw out, nothing can stand up to the Sharks lines, cept maybe the Canucks.
Defensemen: Advantage: Sharks
The Kings top two defensemen are Jack Johnson and Drew Doughty, both hit 40 points, cept Johnson had a -21, and Doughty had a +13. Most of Johnson's points came on the PP, so he's not had much sucess 5v5. Dan Boyle is the leading point scorer for the Sharks D, but their defensemen have +/- levels in teh positive. Their top four D will be good, Ian White was acquired at the trade dealine and has been solid and Wallin/Huskins should rotate the #6 spot.
Goaltending: Advantage: Niemi
Guess who won the Stanley Cup last year? Niemi did! That's all you need to know!
Power Play: Advantage: Sharks
#2 PP in the league with a 23.5% while the Kings have a 16.1% PP conversion. The Sharks have five players that scored 52 goals on the PP between them in Marleau, Heatley, Pavelski, Couture, and Thornton. The Power Play goes through Jack Johnson on the Kings, but without Kopitar the #2 guy on the PP is a big loss.
Penalty Kill: Advantage: Kings
They have the #4 PK in the league at 85.5% and San Jose has the #24 PK in the league with a 79.6%. Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau each have a pair of shorties, but the advantage still goes to the Kings.
X-Factor: There is no X-Factor, you can guar-an-damn-tee the Sharks advance, or insert Antti Niemi and copy what I said earlier about him.
#3 Red Wings vs #6 Coyotes
Prediction: Red Wings in 7
Come on, this is the Detroit Red Wings we're talking about, when was the last time they didn't advance past the first round? (2006) Not only that, they're playing the same team they played last year in the first round, and even though they went 7 games, I don't expect the Red Wings to lose.
Regular Season Series:
Red Wings @ Coyotes (2-1)OT
Coyotes @ Red Wings (4-2)
Coyotes @ Red Wings (2-3)OT
Red Wings @ Coyotes (4-5)SO
Coyotes (2-0-2)
Red Wings (2-1-1)
Forwards: Advantage: Red Wings
Even without big Henrik Zetterberg, the Red Wings have a ton of formidable forwards. Datsyuk, Franzen, Cleary, Holmstrom, Bertuzzi, Filppula, Eaves and Helm. They have depth and they know how to play as a unit. The Coyotes have goal scorers, and they have a lot of players with double-digit goals, but they don't have any players that can take over a game like the Red Wings do. I like Doan, Vrbata, and especially Stempniak, along with Korpikoski, Pyatt, Whitney, and Hanzal, but they don't have the experience and game-changers.
Defensemen: Advantage: Red Wings
The Coyotes have Keith Yandle, they don't have Nicklas Lidstrom, Brian Rafalski, Niklas Kronwall, Brad Stuart, Jonathan Ericsson, and Ruslan Salei. Good luck Phoenix, you added Ranger reject Michal Rozsival. The only bright spot is Ed Jovanovski is back, but he has yet to regain the form that once made him famous.
Goaltending: Advantage: Coyotes
Jimmy Howard has been having a terrible season compared to what was expected of him. On the other hand, Ilya Bryzgalov has been having a great season. He played these same Red Wings last season, and I'm sure he wants to beat them this year.
Power Play: Advantage: Red Wings
The Red Wings have the #5 PP at 22.3%, the Yotes have the #23 PP at 15.9%. The Red Wings are gonna have Holmstrom and Franzen in front of the net. Good luck with that Phoenix, there's a reason why they're potent year after year.
Penalty Kill: Advantage: Red Wings
Red Wings were #17 at 82.3% and the Yotes were #26 with 78.4%. I give it to the Red Wings because they have better two-way players than the Yotes
X-Factors: Ilya Bryzgalov & Henrik Zetterberg
If Bryz has a monster series, don't be surprised if the Yotes beat the Wings, but he'll make this series go 7 and give the Coyotes a chance to steal this series.
If Henrik comes back, he can make a huge difference for the Wings. He won't play game 1, but his presence is huge if the Red Wings are to come outta this series unscathed.
#4 Ducks vs #5 Predators - Predators in 7
I honestly think this is a series that the Predators can steal with Rinne in net. I like Perry, Getzlaf, and Ryan, but Pekka Rinne was the #2 goalie in SV% this season. Would've been #1 if Thomas didn't go nuts.
Regular Season Series:
Ducks @ Predators (1-4)
Predators @ Ducks (4-5)
Predators @ Ducks (4-1)
Ducks @ Predators (4-5)
Predators (3-1-0)
Ducks (1-3-0)
Forwards: Advantage: Ducks
They have Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, Teemu Selanne, and Bobby Ryan. Those guys put up monster points and had great seasons, not to mention Perry scoring 50 goals this season. Martin Erat and Sergei Kostitsyn led the Preds with 50 points a piece, so it's safe to say that the Ducks hold the advantage here.
Defensemen: Advantage: Predators
Ducks have Lubomir Visnovsky, the Preds have Ryan Suter and Shea Weber, two of the best two-way defensemen in the league. They are capable of shutting down any top-line in the league and with Rinne in net, that makes their life so much easier. Toni Lydman had a nice +32 for the Ducks, but then u look at Cam Fowler with a -25 and u see that their defensive corps is all over the place
Goaltending: Advantage; Predators
Pekka Rinne or the revolving door of goalies in Anaheim? Going with Pekka Rinne. 33 wins and a 2.12 GAA with a .930 save percentage. Pekka's stats again the Ducks? 3-0, 2.21 GAA, and a .945 save percentage. I think I like Pekka Rinne in this situation.
Power Play: Advantage: Ducks
They had the #3 power play with 23.5% while the Preds were at 26th with a 15.2%. Teemu Selanne and Corey Perry had 30 power play goals between them. Nuff said.
Penalty Kill: Advantage: Predators
Preds were #5 in the league with a 84.9% while the ducks were 19th with 81.3%. I think this is something the Preds will get to exploit at some point during the series because the PK for the Ducks is definitely worse than that with Hiller not in net.
X-Factor: Pekka Rinne (see above)
That's all I got for the quarter-finals, lets see if I'm right!
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