I went seven for eight last round in terms of picking the correct teams. (Damn Sabres!) Well, anyways, it's about time for my next round of picks, I'll be holding off on the Sharks and Red Wings game because that's really gonna be an insane series. I'll be posting more analysis on the individual series from the conference quarter-final match-ups later as I have gained some more time, however, that'll come over the next few days. Anyways, here's my picks below.
#1 Washington Capitals vs #5 Tampa Bay Lightning
Prediction: Capitals in 6
The Capitals renewed effort on defense has shown that they can shut down anybody. Even though the Rangers lacked offense, the Capitals had the lowest GAA of any team in the first round of the playoffs. The Lightning's main scoring area was around the net, and the Capitals have great defense around the net. I don't expect the Lightning to get quite as many goals as they go against the Pens, but we'll see...
Regular Season Series:
November 11th, 2010 Lightning @ Capitals (3-6)
November 26th, 2010 Lightning @ Capitals (0-6)
January 4th, 2011 Lightning @ Capitals (1-0) OT
January 12th, 2011 Capitals @ Lightning (0-3)
February 4th, 2011 Capitals @ Lightning (5-2)
March 7th, 2011 Capitals @ Lightning (2-1) SO
Capitals 4-1-1
Lightning 2-3-1
Forwards: Advantage: Lightning
I love the Caps forwards, don't get me wrong, but the Lightning on paper, have some great forwards to roll out in Stamkos, St. Louis, and Lecavalier for this season. You can counter with Ovechkin, Semin, and Backstrom, but the Lightning on paper are better at the forward position than the Caps right now. In my opinion, the Caps have more depth than the Lightning, but the Lightning are just slightly better on paper.
Defensemen: Advantage: Capitals
I've seen the Lightning defensemen, and I've seen the Capitals defensemen. Very rarely are you going to criticize their play (unless it's Denis Wideman). The Bolts D are susceptible to getting beat off the boards and giving up breakaways, the Caps are not. I could point offensive numbers like crazy to show how good each team is, but the Capitals D is much better playing D and just as good on the O as the Bolts.
Goaltending: Advantage: Capitals
You want to tell me you're not impressed by Neuvirth? He's kept his play consistent the entire series. Roloson has been up and down. He was really good at the end of the series, but you can't ignore the beginning in what may be a repeat performance against the Caps early on.
Power Play: Advantage: Bolts
They embarrassed a team known as the #1 PK unit in the regular season. The Caps were #2 in the regular season. Not only that, the Bolts have performed better throughout the season on the PP and that's why I give this to them.
Penalty Kill: Advantage: Caps
I'm just going to point out one thing. The Penguins did not have Crosby or Malkin and their power play has suffered since. Yes, the Rangers also had a suffering power play, but when you compare the actually play of both power plays, the Penguins were just god-awful compared to the Rangers, and both teams only got 1 goal on the PP.
X-Factor(s): Alexander Semin and Dwayne Roloson
He already has 7 goals and 2 assists in four games against them this season and 22 goals and 17 assists in 33 games against Tampa for his career. He's going to have every opportunity to light up Tampa this series on the second line and should take full advantage of it. If he shows up like he did in the first round, this Tampa team is going to be in a lot of trouble.
Roloson proved to be key for the Lightning in bringing them back from a 3-1 deficit. He will have to continue his stellar play for the Bolts to even have a chance to win. While the Penguins didn't have their top guns, the Capitals do, and you can be sure they will be fully rested and raring to go against the Bolts. Roloson is going to have to play like he has his entire career against the Caps, 8-5-4 with a 2.11 GAA. Let's see what he can do!
#2 Philadelphia Flyers vs #3 Boston Bruins
Prediction: Bruins in 7
The B's and Flyers are both riding off game 7 highs, however, the question will come down to which team can be more physical in this series. The Flyers will be missing leading goal scorer Jeff Carter while the Bruins hope Milan Lucic will show up for the playoffs now in the second round. I will have to give the edge to the Bruins.
Regular Season Series:
December 1st, 2010 Bruins @ Flyers (3-0)
December 11th, 2010 Flyers @ Bruins (2-1) OT
January 13th, 2011 Flyers @ Bruins (5-7)
March 27th, 2011 Bruins @ Flyers (2-1) OT
Bruins 3-0-1
Flyers 1-2-1
Forwards: Advantage: Flyers
The Flyers are just loaded at forward, from Danny Briere, Claude Giroux, Scott Hartnell, James Van Riemsdyk, etc. The Bruins have fowards and are almost as deep, but Lucic hasn't shown up, Krejci only has a goal. The Flyers forwards in general are playing better than the B's forwards right now.
Defensemen: Advantage: Bruins
Generally you look at both teams defensively amongst their defensemen, and I have seen the Bruins defensemen do a lot more on defense than the Flyers defensemen. The Flyers have rotated goalies because their defensemen have not performed well coming back. The Bruins have rarely, if ever, left Tim Thomas out to dry.
Goaltending: Bruins
Tim Thomas or Brian Boucher? This is really a simple answer... Tim Thomas. Besides, who knows how many games til Boucher gets pulled for Bobrovsky or Leighton?
Power Play: Advantage: Flyers
There's only one number you need to know. 0. That's the percentage of power plays converted for the Bruins.
Penalty Kill: Advantage: Neither
They had roughly the same percentage killing off penalties, but the interesting this is that the Bruins have yet to score a goal on the power play. There's no way this is going to continue. While we're at it, the Flyers played a poor PK team in Buffalo.
X-Factor: Danny Briere and Tim Thomas
Danny Briere is the reason the Flyers made it to the second round, much like Tim Thomas is the reason the Bruins made it to the second round. Something's gotta give. There's no numbers to put up here, you saw them lead their teams, they're going to have to do so again if they want to win this series.
#1 Vancouver Canucks vs #5 Nashville Predators
Prediction: Why not? Predators in 7
Regular Season Series:
January 26th, 2011 Predators vs Canucks (1-2)
February 17th, 2011 Canucks vs Predators (1-3)
March 3rd, 2011 Predators vs Canucks (3-0)
March 29th, 2011 Canucks vs Predators (3-1)
Forwards: Advantage: Canucks
They have the Sedin twins, Ryan Kesler, Alex Burrows and their supporting cast helped the Canucks advance. However, the Predators are not far behind with Mike Fisher, David Legwand, and Jordin Tootoo, however, they have received a lot of surprise performances from Joel Ward and Nick Spaling. The Canucks have more big name players and talent amongst their forwards, but the Predators play defense across all four lines and all contribute. The Canucks have the advantage, but not by much.
Defensemen: Advantage: Predators
Ryan Suter and Shea Weber should strike fear into the hearts of all their opponents. Cody Franson has also shown up this playoff series, but their only shortfall is the ridiculous play of Shane O'Brien who is hurting his team if he can't get his act together and stop committing dumb penalties. The Canucks D has a lot of big names, but they got exposed in games 4 and 5 by the Blackhawks explosive offense. Only Hamhuis and Bieksa finished with a positive +/-, but Bieksa had 16 PIMs, including two fights and Hamhuis has been decent at best.
Goaltending: Advantage: Predators (ever so slightly)
Pekka Rinne and Roberto Luongo, this is going to be a goaltending duel to watch, no one can be sure if Luongo is back to himself after getting yanked or benched in games 4 thru 6, but there's no one for the Canucks to turn to, so he's gotta take the team on his back if they are to win. Pekka Rinne was pulled in game 4, but he came back much better in 5 and 6, both wins for the Preds to end the series.
Power Play: Advantage: Predators
The Canucks and Predators had about the same power-play percentage, with Nashville only percentage points higher, but the biggest concern is Vancouver's home and away power play numbers. At home they're around 10%, on the road it's 37%. Assuming this series goes 7, the Canucks will not have the advantage with four games at home, therefore, this goes to Nashville
Penalty Kill: Canucks
This goes to the Canucks because Anaheim dominated the Preds. The Ducks were converting at nearly 37%, which mean the Predators will have to figure out something before their first game tonight to win.
X-Factor(s): Pekka Rinne and Roberto Luongo
You look at their regular season stats, Rinne had a GAA of 2.12, Luongo with 2.11. The save percentage of .930 to Rinne and .928 to Luongo. This is going to be a series of which goalie will be better for his team. You can compare all the numbers: wins (38-33 Luongo), shutouts (6-4 Rinne), this is as close as you're going to get to a goalie vs. goalie playoff series. One of them will outperform the other to take his team to the Conference Finals.
(coming up)
#2 San Jose Sharks vs #3 Detroit Red Wings
Prediction: Sharks in 7
I think the Red Wings have had too long to rest. They haven't played in over a week and although Zetterberg is back, I do believe that they will make it competitive, but I don't expect the Red Wings to actually start competing until Game 3 when the series goes back to the Joe. At that point, they'll be down 2-0, probably win games 3 and 4 and then 5 in San Jose, then the Sharks come back for a game 6 overtime win and game 7 score the game winning goal in the last 6 minutes of the game. Kinda vague and yet descriptive at the same time, but it's how I feel at the moment.
Regular Season Series:
November 30th, 2010 Red Wings @ Sharks (5-3)
December 6th, 2010 Sharks @ Red Wings (5-2)
February 22nd, 2011 Sharks @ Red Wings (4-3)
March 3rd, 2011 Red Wings @ Sharks (1-3)
Sharks: (3-1-0)
Red Wings: (1-3-0)
Forwards: Advantage: neither
Both teams are incredibly deep at the forward positions and both teams have incredibly skilled forwards. The Sharks have their top forwards in Heatley, Marleau, Pavelski, Couture, and Thornton; while the Red Wings counter with Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Franzen, Cleary and Holmstrom. This is going to be an incredible series between these two sets of forwards.
Defensemen: Advantage: Red Wings
The Red Wings defensemen have a lot more experience than the Sharks defensemen, plus they're a lot better. Lidstrom has been having a phenomenal year and his defensive partners have been benefiting from it. Not to say the Sharks don't have great defensemen, they do, just, not as great as the Red Wings.
Goaltending: Advantage: Sharks
Howard has 0 Stanley Cups, Niemi has 1 Stanley Cup. Even though Niemi got pulled twice in the Kings series, he has proven that he can win a Stanley Cup. Jimmy Howard has had a sophmore slump, and although the Red Wings swept the Coyotes, Jimmy Howard has yet to truly be tested as the Coyotes are not an offensive scoring machine.
Power Play: Advantage: Sharks
The Red Wings had a great power play against the Coyotes, but the Coyotes were horrible penalty killing all season and it carried over into the playoffs. The Sharks had the #2 PP during the regular season and took on the #4 PK with a less than 10% success rate, but I think that San Jose will do much better against the Red Wings than they did against the Kings.
Penalty Kill: Advantage: Neither
They both had bad PK's throughout the regular season and playoffs. One of these team's PK units is gonna have to step up if they want to advance. The Red Wings got lit up by the Coyotes and the Sharks got lit up by the Kings.
X-Factor: Henrik Zetterberg and Antti Niemi
Antti Niemi is going to have to play solid in net and can't afford to let in cheapies if they Sharks plan to win this. I could say the same about Jimmy Howard, but he has a great set of defensemen in front of him. I'm going with the play that Niemi has shown us thus far, and he needs to be better if his team is to advance.
Henrik Zetterberg didn't play the first series, but he's back and healthy for this one. He'll have to be on the top of his game as he takes on the Sharks as they'll be counting on him to perform with Datsyuk on the top line.
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