Thursday, September 15, 2011

Thursdays up the middle

Today, I plan on writing about running backs and making this a weekly thing as well. I'm not going to put any rankings up until after week 4 like with the other positions. Simply put, I did not do enough research in the off-season to compile an initial list, then plug in the weekly stats and see how they correlate to the end of the season. That's what I would do in future years, but I'm not there yet. I am prepping already for future seasons, so that next year, it'll be better. In the meantime, I did some other stuff, looked over carries, touches, red zone stuff. Posting everyone's numbers would be ridiculous since everyone knows what stats running backs put up.

So here's some interesting running back numbers...

Carries (at least 15)
Tim Hightower - 25
Cedric Benson - 25
Ben Tate - 24
Maurice Jones-Drew - 24
Darren McFadden - 22
Frank Gore - 22
Jahvid Best -21
Fred Jackson - 20
Ray Rice - 19
Cadillac Williams - 19
Beanie Wells - 18
Peyton Hillis - 17
Felix Jones - 17
Matt Forte - 16
Adrian Peterson - 16
LeSean McCoy - 15

Targets
Earnest Graham - 9
Cadillac Williams - 9
Darren Sproles - 9
Peyton Hillis - 8
Ladainian Tomlinson - 7
Willis McGahee - 7
Jason Snelling - 7
Chris Johnson - 7
Matt Forte - 6
Jamaal Charles - 6
Pierre Thomas - 5
Ray Rice - 5
Justin Forsett - 5
Ryan Matthews - 5
Jahvid Best - 5
Jacquizz Rodgers - 5



Carries in the Red Zone (at least 3)
Frank Gore - 7
Fred Jackson - 6
Ben Tate - 6
Maurice Jones-Drew - 6
Mike Tolbert - 5
Ray Rice - 5
Derrick Ward - 5
Ricky Williams - 4
Cedric Benson - 4
Felix Jones - 4
James Starks - 3
Reggie Bush - 3
Rashard Mendenhall - 3
Tim Hightower - 3
Mark Ingram - 3
Peyton Hillis - 3
Beanie Wells - 3
Danny Woodhead - 3

Targets in the Red Zone (at least 3)
Mike Tolbert - 5
Darren Sproles - 5

Total Red Zone Touches (at least 4)
Mike Tolbert - 10
Frank Gore - 9
Darren Sproles - 7
Fred Jcakson - 7
Ray Rice - 6
Ben Tate - 6
Maurice Jones-Drew - 6
James Starks - 5
Reggie Bush - 5
Derrick Ward - 5
Rashard Mendenhall - 4
Tim Hightower - 4
Ricky Williams - 4
Cedric Benson - 4
Felix Jones - 4

You may ask what all these numbers mean. Well, they can be used to interpret a lot of things. You can see which teams trust their primary back as a receiver. You can also see which backs each team uses down in the Red Zone as well. I'll make it simpler for you folks that don't get it.

Arizona Cardinals - Beanie Wells is the feature back, he got 85 percent of the carries and had all of the carries in the red zone. The Skins shut down Bradshaw and Jacobs, they could do the same to Beanie.

Atlanta Falcons - Michael Turner had 10 carries for 100 yards and Jason Snelling had 2 for 10. If they had ran consistently during the game, Turner might've had a great game. Problem was, they were down the entire game and Turner stopped running after the first series in the third quarter. Sure, Turner had a fumble, but Matt Ryan threw way too much for a team that should be relying more on it's feature back than it's wideouts. Atlanta plays a tough Philly team that is weak against the run, should they choose to exploit it.

Baltimore Ravens - Ray Rice destroyed Pittsburgh on Sunday, and he's going to continue to wreck teams the rest of this season. Sure, he had a good game, but if I were his owner, I'd be concerned about Ricky Williams getting four carries inside the 20 compared to Ray Rice's 5. He didn't steal a touchdown this week, but it's something to be concerned bout as a Ray Rice owner.

Buffalo Bills - Fred Jackson got 61% of the carries with Johnny White getting about 24% and Spiller getting 15%, but Spiller got the lone touchdown. Don't worry Jackson owners, Fred got 7 shots in the red zone, 6 carries and a pass, Spiller only had 2. They're playing a tough Oakland team that won't let Fitzpatrick be so pass happy, so expect more from the run game.

Carolina Panthers - DeAngelo is #1, Stewart is #2, but all the goal-line carries went to Cam Newton. That's gonna hurt owners of any of the Carolina running backs. Neither back had 15 carries and Newton threw 37 times. Even if they do run next week, they're not going to get much.

Chicago Bears - Every time the Bears got in the red zone, they passed the ball. Forte got one of those passes, but it indicates that Forte will have to catch passes inside the 20 and run it in. He only had 16 carries, while his backup got 10, but Forte's most dangerous aspect is his ability to run after the catch as witnessed by his 56 yard touchdown against Atlanta. Expect more of the same against the Saints.

Cincinnati Bengals - Cedric Benson had a great run to seal the game, but they played against a weak Cleveland team, whose defense looked awful and had some big mental mistakes. He's their only weapon right now and he'll be going against a Denver team that got wrecked by McFadden and Bush. Expect a good week.

Cleveland Browns - The Bengals managed to contain Peyton Hillis for a good majority of this game. They made Colt McCoy try to beat them and he couldn't. Next week against Indy should provide an interesting match-up as we find out if the Colts defense is really that bad, or if the Texans run game is really that good.

Dallas Cowboys - Felix Jones had a mediocre game as a result of a great Jets defense. But still found the end zone. He also proved viable in the passing game and had four carries inside the red zone. He won't be facing the Jets every week, but San Fran could still be tough as they shut down Lynch this past week.

Denver Broncos - There was no run game. They tried Moreno and McGahee, both fumbled, Moreno lost his, McGahee managed to keep his. Both contributed to the passing game, but McGahee is obviously the favorite to catch and run. 12 carries, 25 yards. 7 receptions, 67 yards. That was their contributions. Might be a little better against the Browns, but don't expect miracles.

Detroit Lions - Somebody say Jahvid Best wasn't healthy? Dude ran it 21 times for 72 yards and had 4 receptions for 42 yards, but didn't get a TD. It wasn't for lack of trying though, he got 2 out of the 3 carries in the red zone. Didn't get targeted on a pass, but obviously, Stafford was gunning for Calvin and Nate Burleson in the red zone. Against KC, expect Best to put up even better numbers.

Green Bay Packers - They didn't run much, but Starks is going to be the primary RB, sharing a 60/40 split with Grant. Starks had the rushing TD and had 3 carries compared to Grant's one if the red zone. They're playing Carolina next and if Beanie Wells can run on them, who says Starks can't?

Houston Texans - Ben Tate and Derrick Ward were great til Ward got injured, then Tate turned it up a notch and blew up the Colts D. Tate got 6 carries in the red zone, Ward got 5. Arian Foster will most likely be back this week and with Derrick Ward getting injured, expect Foster and Tate to share the carries. I still like Foster in this situation regardless, because the Texans are such a juggernaut on offense that both Foster and Tate could have monster games. Still, doesn't hurt to pick up Tate or wait on Foster to get healthy. The Texans had 41 rushing attempts against the Colts. Only concern is Ben Tate's fumble.

Indianapolis Colts - without Manning, the run game looked terrible, Addai got 8 carries, Carter got 7. Both combined for 64 yards rushing, and Addai had 2 catches for 13 yards, but it looked bad. Addai is not as big of a threat without Manning and Carter is just starting to get into the mix. They go against Cleveland this week, so Addai might do well.

Jacksonville Jaguars - MJD is on a limit this season and he had 24 carries for 97 yards against the Titans, his back-ups also got in some yards and Karim showed his ability to catch and run. MJD had six carries in the red zone, although all of it came in their one possession in the red zone, it's good to see they're devoted to running the ball with MJD. Expect more difficulties against the Jets.

Kansas City Chiefs - their run game was good, problem was, they were down 20-0 before Jamaal Charles scored right before the half. They got away from their run game and got wrecked trying to win off Matt Cassel's arm. They go into Detroit who shut down LeGarette Blount and will try to shut down Jamaal Charles with their front four. Charles and McCluster were each targeted once in the red zone, but this team looks awful.

Miami Dolphins - Reggie Bush is the unquestioned lead back in this offense. Although he only had 11 carries, that's because Miami was playing catch-up after halftime. Bush still had 9 receptions for a total of 20 touches, 94 yards, and 1 receiving touchdown. He is injury prone, but very dynamic. They take on Houston and it should be interesting as Bush did light up Houston before catching passes. Bush also had 3 runs and 2 targets in the red zone, one of which was a score. Chad Henne had the only rushing touchdown when he called his own number in the 1st quarter.

Minnesota Vikings - Adrian Peterson did his job, the rest of the team did not. he had 98 yards on 16 carries and 2 receptions for 6 yards. McNabb was so bad, it's a surprise Peterson was able to run through the Chargers D. Well, he didn't obviously, he had 1 big run of 46 yards and the rest of his 15 carries for 52 yards, roughly 3.5 per attempt. Next is Tampa Bay who had trouble stopping Jahvid Best.

New England Patriots - Danny Woodhead had twice as many carries as BenJarvus Green-Ellis, hereafter referred to as The Law Firm. Woodhead also had 3 times as many carries as Green-Ellis in the red zone, although The Law Firm did score on his only carry inside the 20. Woodhead only had 1 catch this game, but that was because of the plethora of targets Brady has to throw to. Woodhead is the one you want.

New Orleans Saints - Mark Ingram got a majority of the carries, he also got stuffed at the goal-line to end the game. While Pierre Thomas got 31 yards on 5 carries and 37 yards on 4 receptions, the real running back to own is Darren Sproles, not only does he get to run the ball, catch passes and return kicks for touchdowns, he is the feature back in the red zone. Ingram had more rushes in the red zone than Sproles, but Sproles had 5 targets in the red zone. Brees' favorite red zone target is Darren Sproles.

New York Giants - The Giants got both their TDs on runs. Eli Manning with a 2 yard run and Ahmad Bradshaw with a 6 yard run. In total they had 75 yards on 20 carries. If you think about it, they really did get shut down outside the red zone when it came to rushing. In the second half, they had 1 drive that exceeded 15 yards and that drive ended with Bradshaw getting stuffed on 4th and 1. I'd be worried about their new fullback, cause he's not blocking that well.

New York Jets - looking on paper, Shonn Greene had 10 rushing attempts compared to LT's 5. Looking at the passing game, Greene had one reception for 7 yards and LT had 6 receptions for 73 yards. Clearly, their is a timeshare going on here. If you own Greene, shame of you for not picking up LT, if you own LT, what a great steal for PPR leagues. Moving forward, Greene will still get 66% of the carries, but rarely will he get an opportunity to catch and run.

Oakland Raiders - they run, they smash, they seek and destroy. That's their run game. They run the ball more than they throw and they ran it down the throats of the Broncos. They take on Buffalo which also has a weak run defense, but got lucky against KC because they went up early, still, expect more of the same from Run DMC and Michael Bush. Interesting stat, McFadden, Bush, and Campbell each ran it twice inside the red zone.

Philadelphia Eagles - LeSean McCoy had a monster game against the Rams, 15 carries, 122 yards, 1 rushing td, 2 receptions, 15 receiving yards, 1 receiving td. They play Atlanta this week, Matt Forte carved up the Falcons D and look for McCoy to do the same as well. Only concern is Ronnie Brown had more carries in the red zone than McCoy, but with McCoy being a dual threat, it's not much to worry about.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Pittsburgh got away from the run and it's because they were manhandled from the start of the game. Mendenhall fumbling wasn't great either, but at least he got 3 carries in the red zone. This was an anomaly, look forward to him running over the Seahawks.

San Diego Chargers - There is only one fact you need to know about the Chargers. Mike Tolbert either ran or was targeted on every single play in the red zone in the second half. Check the play-by-play if you don't believe me. That is the only thing you need to know. He carried the ball 5 times in the red zone and was targeted 5 times in the red zone for a total of 10 shots to score a TD, and you wonder how he got three TDs? Ryan Matthews had 0 touches in the red zone. ZERO!

San Francisco 49ers - not much can be said about the niners' offense. Gore had a ton of shots to run it in this game, but the Seahawks defense stiffened in the red zone. Frank Gore will still get a good majority of the touches in the red zone, so that's nothing to worry about, what is to worry about is Alex Smith, dude was as bad as Tavaris Jackson, cept he didn't turn the ball over and Ted Ginn Jr. saved this team from a potential loss. Frank Gore will still hit 1000 yards and a decent amount of touchdowns. Not so sure about how he'll fare against the Dallas D.

Seattle Seahawks - I really doubt the ability of this team to move the ball, the fact they had trouble against San Francisco makes me wonder how they'll fare against Pittsburgh. Even if you have Lynch, don't start him. They had 7 drives go for under 10 yards and Jackson isn't a threat to anybody

St. Louis Rams - Stephen Jackson got injured, but not before taking a big one to the house against the Eagles D. Cadillac came in and did his job when Jackson had to step down due to injury. Both guys are capable backs who can run the ball. Cadillac more so in the receiving game than Jackson. If Jackson isn't back week 2, expect the Cadillac to start and put up decent points against a solid Giants D.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - We have a problem. Blount was given the ball 5 times. Graham 6 times with 8 receptions to boot. Graham had 1 carry and 2 targets in the red zone. Blount had 0. There is clearly a problem and it had to do with the Lions front four. Next week is Minnesota who got beat by Mike Tolbert. Yes, they got beat by one of the running backs in San Diego. Expect both Graham and Blount to be running the ball next week. If you have Blount, you might wanna pick up Graham.

Tennessee Titans - Chris Johnson got wrecked. The Jaguars stacked it up against him and he couldn't do anything about it. I wouldn't be too worried though, he had 57 yards rushing against the Steelers on 15 attempts to open the 2009 season, he ended up with 2006 yards that season. Then again, he does face the Baltimore defense this week that shut down Mendenhall and the entire Steelers offense...

Washington Redskins - their run game was decent, it did it's job, Tim Hightower, 25 carries, 72 yards, 1 TD, 3 catches, 25 receiving yards. The G-Men were missing some key defensive lineman, but the Redskins managed to grind it out on the ground, expect more next week against a weak Arizona Defense.

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