Monday, September 5, 2011

Deep Sleepers to look out for: AFC

So here's the AFC guys you might want to take a look at late in the draft.

TE Ed Dickson - Baltimore Ravens
Ed Dickson is the next Todd Heap, when Heap was in his prime with the Ravens and not injured. He has looked great this preseason and has the potential to run down the field as well as the short cut routes. He can go up and get it and has shown the ability to fight for the ball in the air. With Lee Evans and Anquan Boldin outside, and teams having to stop Ray Rice, the middle of the field will provide him plenty of space to catch and run. He's worth taking as a second TE and has the potential to end up being a top 10 TE.

RB C.J. Spiller - Buffalo Bills
He's going to be the #2 back and with Fred Jackson finally hitting 30, expect Spiller to get a lot more carries than last season. Also, like Fred Jackson, he has the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and run with it, which is why Spiller should see more touches this year and Jackson less. While I doubt Spiller will be the #1 back in Buffalo, he could produce some very good games if Jackson were to get injured or not perform down the stretch. Regardless, he's worth taking late in the draft and especially if you have Fred Jackson on your team.

WR Jordan Shipley - Cincinnati Bengals
The one position you can never underestimate is the slot receiver, on any team. They're going to get a ton of catches and going to be the quarterback's primary option underneath. Jordan Shipley is that guy. Last season, he was behind T.O. and OchoCinco, both gone. While he's not starting out wide, he's going to get a lot of looks in the slot. He's had some monster games, and he's had some clunkers. You may point out that Andy Dalton is throwing and not Carson Palmer. That's even better, younger QBs are going to try to play it safe as much as possible and not wait to chuck it down the field if they feel rushed. Expect 8 targets a game for Shipley.

QB Colt McCoy - Cleveland Browns
While Colt had his moments last season, the Browns still sucked. Regardless, Colt has proven himself in college and will prove himself in the NFL, this season might be another step forward and I expect him to at least throw 20 TDs now that he has the starting job. Some may point to the fact that he has 9 INTs compared to 6 TDs, well, 8 of those INTs came against division rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore, two of the best defenses in the league, you can guarantee any rookie is going to get eaten alive by those secondaries. While I'd still bench him against top defenses, he has a shot to display what he's got when he takes on some of the weaker defenses in the league this season.

RB Willis McGahee - Denver Broncos
Many of us forget a few years back, McGahee was a goal-line vulture for Baltimore. Well, expect him to reprise that role this season for Denver. He's going to get a lot of opportunities inside the red zone and expect him to put up points. Knowshon Moreno, while the lead back, isn't someone the Broncos have instilled a lot of trust in as witnessed in the last three games of the previous season. Moreno still has the #1 gig, but for how long? And you can expect Willis McGahee will also be knocking at the door to getting all the carries from goal-line to goal-line

RB Ben Tate - Houston Texans
This was the guy that was originally supposed to start last season, but got injured in pre-season. Arian Foster played the first game, and the rest, was history. With Foster having a hammy problem to start the season (they don't go away, trust me) expect Tate to be in the mix for touches... a lot of touches... it really depends on Foster's hamstring, but I doubt the Texans coaching staff will want to take any chances, they'll be giving Foster more rest and Tate more touches. He's also a great handcuff should Foster go down at any point during the season.

RB Delone Carter - Indianapolis Colts
If you're a Colts fan, you're worried about one thing right now, Peyton Manning. If you're a fantasy football fan, you're worried about the Colts backfield. Last season Donald Brown led the team in rushing and carries because Addai couldn't stay healthy. Addai hasn't played 16 games since his rookie season. Delone Carter looks to be the #2 back in Indy. He's a young guy who has comparisons to MJD. Donald Brown showed what he couldn't do last season when Addai went down with inability to run for more than 50 yards, he ran for over 50 only three times last season! Furthermore, Brown couldn't punch it in from the goal-line. Expect Carter to get the back-up carries because Brown has not performed well this pre-season either.

RB Deji Kareem - Jacksonville Jaguars
He is the handcuff to MJD this season.  With Jennings on IR, Kareem will assume the duties of the #2 back and will be getting significantly more carries than he did last season. He has the potential to break out some long runs, and could have some big games with MJD's bum knee. He looked good in preseason and is still a young fast back, much like Drew was when he first came into the league.

TE Leonard Pope - Kansas City Cheifs
Last season, Matt Cassel's second favorite target was Tony Moeaki. With Moeaki on IR this season, Leonard Pope will pick up the scraps. He's not as good as Moeaki, but Cassel loves to throw it to his tight end. Pope could easily surpass his career best numbers, which isn't much, but still someone that can provide points for owners during some weeks of the season.

RB Daniel Thomas - Miami Dolphins
Much has been made of his performance in the preseason, and while it is still preseason, he's still got an opportunity to shine. Reggie Bush is not an every down back and Thomas should be getting at least 33% of the carries in Miami. That being said, he still has an opportunity to prove himself. Reggie Bush is also injury prone and has difficulty running between the tackles. Expect him to earn the team's trust before the end of the season and takeover the workload from Reggie Bush.

TE Aaron Hernandez - New England Patriots
Sure, Rob Gronkowski got 10 TDs last season compared to Hernandez's 6, but did you know that in the two games that Hernandez missed, Gronkowski got 3 TDs and against the Steelers, who were determined to prevent Hernandez from getting a pass, Gronkowski got 3 TDs on them? So if you actually look at both of them playing together, where one team is not preventing either TE from getting the ball, Hernandez actually outproduced Gronkowski in every category, including TDs, 6 to 4. Hernandez is much more athletic and agile in the open field. Gronkowski also went 8 games last season with only one reception in the game while Hernandez had 1 reception in only 3 games and the zero reception game against Pittsburgh. So who's really Brady's favorite TE in New England?

RB LaDainian Tomlinson - New York Jets
Is everyone forgetting who started for the Jets last season? Is everyone forgetting that Shonn Greene is not a strong catch-and-run guy like LT? Yes, LT may be second string, but don't expect Greene to get anywhere NEAR the full workload, he will get more carries, but LT is still gonna be catching passes outta the backfield, and, let's face it, he's still LT. Might not be as quick, but he's LT. Give him his respect.

TE Kevin Boss - Oakland Raiders
I feel like everyone is forgetting that Kevin Boss went to Oakland. He went from a WR happy Eli Manning to a TE happy Jason Campbell. Check the stats if you don't believe me. Favorite Target in 2010: Zach Miller, 2009: Santana Moss (Cooley was injured), 2008: Santana Moss and Chris Cooley each had over 100 targets, 2007: same story as 2008, 2006: Cooley got 94, Moss got 101. You get the picture. Jason Campbell loves to throw it to his TE. Kevin Boss will be getting at least 80 targets this year, and that's on the low end, it could go up to 100 considering Campbell will play the entire season. Take a gander on him as a second TE.

WR Antonio Brown - Pittsburgh Steelers
Looks like the young guy has won the #3 receiver role. He's being picked up late in a lot of drafts and looks to have the potential for 50 receptions, 600+ yards and 4 TDs, it could go up depending on how healthy Hines Ward really is as he could easily supplant him as the #2 receiver. I don't need to say much more, you know what to do.

WR Malcom Floyd - San Diego Chargers
Last season Floyd was often injured and didn't catch as many passes as he should've. However, he still got 6 TDs and 700+ yards in what was an otherwise injury-riddled season. Imagine if he were actually healthy the entire season? He won't be fighting with Naanee for targets and should get at least 50 receptions and close to 900 yards. Is another 6+ TDs possible? Well, when you got Philip Rivers throwing to you, it most likely is.

QB Matt Hasselbeck - Seattle Seahawks
Is it really the end of Matt Hasselbeck? Or does he have one last hurrah? Honestly, he might be done, but much like Brett Farve who had a horrible season in New York, he might just want to prove to his doubters that he can still fling it. With targets like Kenny Britt and Nate Washington, as well as a strong RB in Chris Johnson... this sounds exactly like what Brett Favre stepped into at Minnesota. Now Matt Hasselbeck is not Brett Favre, but he was his understudy so many years ago and it wouldn't be surprising if he puts up some numbers to prove his doubters wrong... at least, for one more season.

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