If you are reading this, chances are you have heard one of us “experts” advising on “buying low” and “selling high”. There is a reason for that - it works in your favor, and if you can pull it off, helps your team win CHAMPIONSHIPS, instead of winning NOW. That is the key difference.
Buying low typically consists of two circumstances. One, the player has a track record of performing well in the latter half of the season despite his current struggles. The poster boy for this would of course be the 2011 Albert Pujols. After hitting .300, 30 HR, 100 RBI for 10 consecutive seasons, do you think he’s going to finish this season, at the age of 31, with an average above .250? Unless you are a Cubs fan, chances are you will agree (and if you are a Cubs fan, I‘m sorry for everything). However, the buyer is not the only person aware of this fact. Therefore, buying low on Pujols can be a bit difficult unless the owner has a fuse shorter than even Milton Bradley.
This brings us to our buy low situation number two. In this case, you PERSONALLY know something about a player that not many others do know about. For example, coming into the season, how many people outside of San Francisco do you think know that Pablo Sandoval entered the season having lost 40 pounds, and is in the best shape of his life? You guessed it, not many, even if they are panda enthusiasts. Don’t you think you could’ve saw panda’s stellar start coming (excluding, of course, his injury)? That just screams buy low.
This strategy, however, should be used with caution. Some people, like myself, are so obsessed with buying low, that we sometimes go overboard. When targeting a flunking player, ask yourself - are there any signs of him turning it around? What’s to stop this guy from finishing the season on waivers? Take, for example, Vernon Wells. Vernon Wells is batting a sickening (not in a good way) .183 on the season. He does, however, have 4 homeruns (all in May), batting 7th in an (let’s face it) offensively-challenged Angels lineup. Are there signs of him turning it around? Well, first he won’t be able to shortly because he is on the DL, but let’s look at his long-term value. He is 33 years old, and frankly does not look to be in great shape. I won’t bother you with the sabremetrics and BABIPs or those sexy technological terms. I have MLB TV and I watch every single game I can (yes I sacrifice my social life to keep you informed). So I’m telling you from the games I saw with Wells - he doesn’t look comfortable. You know the look that hitters have when they’ve locked on, and just can’t wait to get up to the plate again? Well, Wells isn’t it. He looks lost at the plate, taking strikes and swinging at balls. Long story short, he needs to stay on the waivers. The only comfort I have in Wells is that he is making 26 million this year and the Angels have no choice but to stay with him every single day. If you are targeting someone like Vernon Wells as a buy-low candidate, you’ve gone too far.
Without further ado, below is a list of struggling players with different labels. They are: BUY NOW!!!, buy if you can, and stay away.
1. Albert Pujols - too late
2. Hanley Ramirez - buy if you can
3. Troy Tulowitzki - BUY NOW!!!
4. Carlos Gonzalez - BUY NOW!!!
5. Carl Crawford - BUY NOW!!!
6. Alex Rodriguez - buy if you can (cuz he’s old. Seriously, that’s the only reason he’s not BUY NOW)
7. Jason Heyward - BUY NOW!!!
8. Dustin Pedroia - BUY NOW!!!
9. Shin-Soo Choo - BUY NOW!!!
10. Kevin Youkilis - BUY NOW!!!
11. Adam Dunn - BUY NOW!!!
12. Dan Uggla - buy if you are thin at 2B
13. Justin Morneau - BUY NOW!!!
14. Ubaldo Jimenez - BUY NOW!!!
15. Mike Stanton - stay away (young kid, got talent but no track record)
16. Mat Latos - buy if you can
17. Pedro Alvarez - stay far, far away
18. Mark Reynolds - oh God no
19. Kelly Johnson - BUY NOW!!!
20. Brett Gardner - BUY NOW!!! (might be too late also)
Also, below are some surging players that might, or might not sustain. They are also labeled accordingly.
1. Lance Berkman - SELL SELL SELL!!!
2. Matt Kemp - Sell only if you are getting a 1st rounder in return
3. Ben Zobrist - Sell only if you are getting top-5 rounder in return
4. Matt Holliday - See Matt Kemp
5. Curtis Granderson - See Ben Zobrist
6. Jeff Francoeur - SELL SELL SELL!!!
7. Gaby Sanchez - Keeper. Won’t get good value if traded.
8. Ike Davis - SELL SELL SELL!!!
9. Andre Ethier - See the Matts
10. Melky Cabrera - See Gaby Sanchez.
11. Colby Rasmus - Keeper.
12. Starlin Castro - Keeper.
13. Jason Kubel - I would say sell but can you really get anything decent for him?
14. Alex Avila - Keeper.
15. Matt Joyce - Keeper, only against righties though
16. Carlos Beltran - SELL SELL SELL!!!
17. Jed Lowrie - SELL SELL SELL!!!
18. Alex Gordon - SELL SELL SELL!!! (I never really believed in Gordon or the Royals)
19. Luke Scott - SELL SELL SELL!!! Arguably the streakiest hitter in baseball.
20. The Sam Fuld selling parade has already ended, no refunds.
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