Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Tuesdays in the Pocket - Week 5

Guess what guys! It's back! Tuesdays in the pocket! You know the deal, it's all about the Quarterbacks. I have derived a formula that can calculate a quarterback's fantasy totals for the season using a few different variables, among those being how they've performed this season and how well the defenses that they will be taking on have performed. There's a few other quirks thrown in there, but like Coca-Cola, I like to keep the formula to myself. Here's the fantasy rankings for quarterbacks. Also, to note, I have two formulas running, so depending on your league settings, it'll vary.


Quarterback Rankings with Passing Touchdowns set to 6 points per.
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Tom Brady
3. Cam Newton
4. Matthew Stafford
5. Tony Romo
6. Drew Brees
7. Michael Vick
8. Eli Manning
9. Ryan Fitzpatrick
10. Rex Grossman
11. Chad Henne
12. Matt Hasselbeck
13. Kyle Orton
14. Mark Sanchez
15. Matt Schaub
16. Joe Flacco
17. Philip Rivers
18. Colt McCoy
19. Josh Freeman
20. Jason Campbell
21. Jay Cutler
22. Tavaris Jackson
23. Matt Ryan
24. Kevin Kolb
25. Donovan McNabb

Quarterback Rankings with Passing Touchdowns set to 4 points per.
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Tom Brady
3. Cam Newton
4. Matthew Stafford
5. Tony Romo
6. Drew Brees
7. Michael Vick
8. Ryan Fitzpatrick
9. Eli Manning
10. Chad Henne
11. Matt Hasselbeck
12. Rex Grossman
13. Josh Freeman
14. Jason Campbell
15. Philip Rivers
16. Joe Flacco
17. Matt Schaub
18. Colt McCoy
19. Mark Sanchez
20. Kyle Orton
21. Tavaris Jackson
22. Jay Cutler
23. Matt Ryan
24. Kevin Kolb
25. Donovan McNabb


I'm sure you'll have questions to ask as to why certain players are ranked where they are and some aren't. My formula is very flexible and player projections change on a week to week basis depending on a number of factors, but you won't see big jumps. I believe four weeks is a sufficient sample size and while it is small, it still provides sufficient data in the long run. I'm almost done with the Wide Receivers projections, still have yet to start running backs or tight ends, so you'll have to wait another week on those.

Where's Big Ben?
I felt as though this would be the most obvious question, so I'll answer it first. Ben Roethlisberger has a Touchdown to Turnover ratio of 3 to 9. 5 interceptions and 4 fumbles. He's taking on a lot of tough defenses down the stretch and if he can't stop turning over the ball, it's really going to hurt him. His receiving weapons are limited and the running game is not doing well. It's really a mess in Pittsburgh and unless the Steelers can fix their offense, they're going to be in a lot of trouble. While the Steelers are 2-2, they BARELY beat the Colts whose defense forced three turnovers from Big Ben and while the Steelers did beat up on the Seahawks, the Seahawks started off the season very poorly. I really think it's the Super Bowl hangover, his injury, and Big Ben's projection looks like this.

Big Ben's stats this season:
4012 passing yards, 19 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 167 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 10 fumbles.

It's the turnovers that will really hurt him this season and he's going to be taking on plenty of good defenses that can make him turn the ball over, he's also got a weakened offensive line and a rushing attack that's not faring so well.
(Images courtesy of Getty Images)

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