So, we've all had our Thanksgiving dinner, Black Friday shopping sprees, and most of all, time to recharge our batteries. Here's hoping Jon comes back and Sam actually starts posting. I also want to mention the three of us are in a fantasy football league together and pretty much hate each others' team and will probably do anything to rip the other one off. (Drinking whiskey as I type this) I'd like to think that this is the time of giving and sharing wince it's the Holidays. Unfortunately, from here until December 22nd, I will not be giving, nor sharing, nor caring. I got exams and what not. Good thing for you guys is, I still give a shit about football... and fantasy football...
Green Bay Packers vs Atlanta Falcons
First off, I like the Packers. I also think Atlanta has gotten way too lucky in the early part of the season. I could list all the things that went right for the Falcons and how they're 8-2. Then again, I could list all the things that went wrong for the Packers and somehow they're 7-3? This is why I like the Packers. They've had so many injuries and bone-headed plays (Bears game anyone?), yet they're 7-3 when they could be 10-0. They went into New York a few weeks back and completely shut down the Jets. They embarrassed Dallas on National TV and made Brett Favre's last game at Lambeau, one to forget. (Unless you're a Packers fan still pissed off about him not retiring when he should have). On the flip side, the Falcons beat the Bengals in a crazy shootout, beat the Ravens when Roddy White pushed off the corner to get a last minute TD, and beat the Rams because... they're the Rams. On defense, the Packers are much more formidable. They have a very strong front seven and Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams will have to figure out a way to shut down Roddy White. On the flip side, the Falcons secondary has gotten torn up by elite quarterbacks. They've managed to really shut down the run game since the first two weeks of the season when Rashard Mendenhall and Tim Hightower (REALLY?) ran for 100+ yards, but they've managed to keep everyone else from surpassing that. The Packers aren't going to run, there's no Ryan Grant, but Aaron Rodgers is going to pick apart the Falcons secondary with Greg Jennings (can I mention that he's been on a tear as of late?) Donald Driver (if he's healthy), James Jones, and Jordy Nelson.
PICK and SPREAD: Green Bay Packers
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills
This is most certainly a trap game. The Bills come in on a two game win streak after a miserable start to the season. Last week was very impressive considering the Bills were down by 17 points going into halftime and winning by 18! Not to mention they outscored Cincinnati 35-0 in the second half! The thing is though, the Bill's offense runs through Fred Jackson. Ryan Fitzpatrick may be having the monster games, but in both wins, Fred Jackson ran for over 100 yards and had over 125 yards rushing and receiving, not to mention scoring two touchdowns in each of those games. The Steelers come in with the #1 rush defense and a very poor passing defense. They've gotten shredded by the likes of Joe Flacco, Chad Henne, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady. Chad Henne was the only QB to lose to them this season. The Steelers also boast Mike Wallace and Hines Ward, a pair of talented wide receivers, but the Bills have the ninth best passing defense in the league, so we'll see how they perform. Actually, just looking at some numbers, I really like the Bills now. Their rushing defense has been shredded by teams featuring multiple backs. Insert table below!
| Team/Players | Att | Yds | TDs |
| Miami |
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| Ronnie Brown | 13 | 65 | 1 |
| Ricky Williams | 18 | 62 | 0 |
| Green Bay |
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|
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| Brandon Jackson | 11 | 29 | 1 |
| John Kuhn | 9 | 36 | 0 |
| New England Patriots |
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| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 16 | 98 | 1 |
| Sammy Morris | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 3 | 42 | 1 |
| New York Jets |
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|
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| LaDainian Tomlinson | 19 | 133 | 2 |
| Shonn Greene | 22 | 117 | 0 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars |
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| Maurice Jones-Drew | 19 | 84 | 0 |
| Deji Karim | 15 | 70 | 0 |
| Baltimore Ravens |
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|
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| Willis McGahee | 11 | 62 | 1 |
| Ray Rice | 16 | 72 | 0 |
| Kansas City Chiefs |
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|
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| Jamaal Charles | 22 | 177 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 19 | 77 | 0 |
| Chicago Bears |
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|
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| Matt Forte | 14 | 49 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 10 | 13 | 0 |
| Detroit Lions |
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|
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| Kevin Smith | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Jahvid Best | 17 | 35 | 0 |
| Cincinnati Bengals |
|
|
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| Cedric Benson | 25 | 124 | 1 |
As you can see, minus the loss to the Bears, they've been managing to shut down rushing teams as of late as well as running back tandems. If they can figure out a way to shut down Mendenhall and make Roethlisberger throw picks. They can win this game.
UPSET SPECIAL! PICK and SPREAD: Buffalo Bills
Carolina Panthers vs Cleveland Browns
There's really not much to say here. The Panthers are on their third string QB and third string RB. They have the worst offense in the NFL. They really have no chance of stopping Peyton Hillis with their 24th ranked rush defense. Jake Delhomme is starting and you can bet he wants to DESTROY the Panthers for getting rid of him.
PICK and SPREAD: Cleveland Browns
Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Giants
Oh man, who would've guessed the Jaguars would be on top of their division this late into the season! They're ahead of Indianapolis, Houston, and Tennessee after finishing behind all of them last year! The Giants are banged up and are having trouble in the locker room again. Brandon Jacobs will finally be starting after receiving a 20 grand fine for what else? Ridiculous antics with the fans. The Giants are missing two of their linemen in Diehl and O'Hara. They lost Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks, Manning's top two WRs for this week and they are coming off back-to-back losses to division rivals Philly and Dallas (DALLAS? ARE YOU KIDDING ME?) Both those teams put up some ridiculous numbers and I doubt the Giants will be able to stop the Jaguars either. On the flip side, the Jags have beaten some solid teams and lost against formidable opopnents
PICK and SPREAD: Jacksonville Jaguars
Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Redskins
Brett Favre has not looked like Brett Favre, he looks like an old washed up man. The Redskins defense gives up a ton of yards, but if you take out the Eagles games, they don't give up many points (just under 20 per game). The last time the Vikings gave up fewer than three touchdowns was BEFORE their bye week. Since then, everyone's been able to score on them. Sure the Redskins have McNabb and a shoddy running game starting Keiland Williams today. (who?) Well, I know who he is, some of you might know him as well for fantasy purposes, but this game is really gonna come down to turnovers. In games the Redskins win the turnover battle, they're 5-2. Those two losses coming to Indianapolis and Houston by 3 points each. The Vikings have only won the turnover battle once and are 1-0. In games they equaled their opponent's turnover, they're 1-0. So here's how the game is going to be won. Turnovers. Redskins are a +6 and Vikings are -13.
PICK and SPREAD: Washington Redskins
Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans
This game is going to be very interesting. Obviously the Titans are going to be starting the Rookie Rusty Smith. On the other side, the Texans have the worst passing defense in the NFL. The question is, will Smith be able to exploit it? He didn't do much against the Redskins outside of a 52 yard bomb to Nate Washington. The Texans have Arian Foster, Matt Schaub, and Andre Johnson. All guys that will probably go crazy against the Titans defense. I'm going with the home field advantage.
PICK: Houston Texans
Late games coming up!
Kansas City Chiefs vs Seattle Seahawks
If this game were in Kansas City, it would be an easy win for the Chiefs. However, it's in Seattle, one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL. Both teams have poor passing defenses as well as passing games, however, Hasselbeck has thrown for over 300 yards in each of the last two games. A win in Arizona and a loss in New Orleans. The Chiefs pound the ball like crazy in their run game with Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles, however, the Seahawks don't have a run game. What they do have is a crazy defense at home with 13 turnovers in four games. The Chiefs will really have to rely on their defense, which has only forced 12 turnovers all season. I really like the Seahawks in this matchup, even if they are 1 point under in the spread.
PICK and SPREAD: Seattle Seahawks
Miami Dolphins vs Oakland Raiders
This is going quite the interesting game. Both teams are .500 and need a win to stay in the playoff chase, while a loss will most certainly push them out of it. Although in the case of the Raiders, they have fewer games to makeup to win the division title, the Dolphins are pretty much praying for a wildcard spot right now. Both teams are 4-1 as their respective sides. Dolphins 4-1 on the road, Raiders 4-1 at home. Both teams are very good at shutting down the passing game, although it didn't work so well for Oakland last week as they got blown out by Pittsburgh. The Dolphins on the other hand got completely shut down by Chicago. Both teams are not that good at shutting down the run, but Miami has averaged under 100 yards rushing per game this season. On the other side, the Raiders have two running backs that have been tearing it up in Michael Bush and Darren McFadden. I like the Raiders at home.
PICK and SPREAD: Oakland Raiders
St. Louis Rams vs Denver Broncos
The Broncos have one of the most explosive passing games in the NFL. The Rams don't have much outside of Steven Jackson. That's where the game will be won. Either on Steven Jackson's Legs or Kyle Orton's arm. I'd go with Kyle Orton's arm considering the Rams have never won on the road this season.
PICK and SPREAD: Denver Broncos
Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears
The Bears have a great defense, so do the Eagles. The Eagles also have a great offense... not so much for the Bears. When somebody figures out how to stop Michael Vick... get back to me... til then...
PICK and SPREAD: Philadelphia Eagles
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Baltimore Ravens
Both teams have had their defenses playing exceptionally well this season. Baltimore is 5th in points allowed, Tampa is 10th. Tampa is 6th in passing defense, Baltimore is 10th. Baltimore is 9th in rushing defense. Tampa is 29th... and therein lies the weakness to this defense. Both offenses are middle of the pack. But expect Ray Rice to have a monster game, and that is how the Ravens will win this game.
PICK: Baltimore Ravens SPREAD: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
San Diego Chargers vs Indianapolis Colts
Both teams have amazing passing offenses. But the Chargers have given up the fewest yards per game on defense. They've lost games due to stupidity, but they're on a three game win streak right now. Although, I think the one thing I've learned over the past couple years is to never bet against the Chargers after Thanksgiving with Philip Rivers. Since Drew Brees left San Diego, Rivers has only lost 1 game in his career after Thanksgiving, along with 22 wins...
PICK and SPREAD: San Diego Chargers
San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals
Worst. Monday. Night. Football. Game. of the season... The Cardinals are the second worst offense in the NFL and fourth worst defense in the NFL. On the flip side, the 49ers haven't won on the road. Somehow, it's gonna be a close game. Ugh... I'm flipping a coin for this one...
PICK: San Francisco 49ers
